Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are waged: positive announcements are released from various governments. Immense energy is expended on containing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from Russian territory, a ability enabled by current data. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been deployed to intercept incoming guided weapons flew past – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: several firings targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely supplied through allied countries. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly gives way to sober acceptance: perhaps the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a aerial vehicle close by, part of a rapid response unit – probably Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its target.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: seven people killed, devastation and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a dependence that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to replace in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from US administration sparked intense emotion, controversy and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from Washington adheres to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, certainly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership operates on a premise well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House believes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does little to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from assuming that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its favour in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding civilians and areas but averting a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: personal goals to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not switch to domestic problems. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect certain reluctance to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
