A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Each writes two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
